Value That's Hard To See

The 2021 Bengals may be the most talented team to ever lose the Super Bowl.

Their team was headed by Joe Burrow, the number one overall pick in the 2020 draft, and a legendary LSU Tiger widely known for leading the best college football team of all time to a national title in 2020.

Burrow was flanked by an embarrassment of talent at the wideout position and in the offensive backfield. His star receiver, Jamar Chase, boasted the 4th most receiving yards in the league along with 13 touchdowns - averaging almost a touchdown every game.

Jamar Chase’s partner in crime at the receiver position was a former Clemson Tiger named Tee Higgins. Higgins was drafted No. 33 overall in the 2020 draft and during his sophomore season in the NFL, eclipsed the highly sought 1,000-yard mark with 1,091 yards and 6 touchdowns.

The remarkable level of talent was not exclusive to the quarterback and wide receiver positions. The bell cow of the backfield, Joe Mixon, was a second-round pick out of Oklahoma who was having the best season of his career up to that point. Mixon had 1,200 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving, amounting to nearly 100 yards every game - a remarkable clip of consistently excellent output.

This roster was exploding with talent. All of their players were beginning to hit their strides as professional athletes and stalwarts of the NFL. Chase’s touchdown celebrations were mimicked by young kids, who aspired to one day be Chase themselves. Burrow’s story of transferring from Ohio State, due to his inability to win the starting position, to LSU where he won a national championship in dominant fashion was the stuff of legends. Higgins won a national title as a Clemson Tiger, where he was featured as a go-to weapon for Trevor Lawrence. Joe Mixon at Oklahoma was the knockout punch running complement to Heisman winner Baker Mayfield’s throws. This team was loaded with talent.

So why did they lose Super Bowl 56 to the Los Angeles Rams? They simply didn’t have enough time.

The offensive line is an infamously unnoticed position. When they are doing their jobs well, people’s attention is focused on the quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers who are the direct beneficiaries of great offensive line play. When an offensive line does a bad job, you see quarterbacks sacked, running backs lit up behind the line of scrimmage, and receivers unable to run their routes to completion. The position is only noticeable when things are going terribly.

I’m a Cowboys fan. One of my most visceral memories as a football fan was the 2014 draft when the Cowboys selected Zach Martin, an offensive guard out of Notre Dame. The fans were pissed. 

In order to select Martin, the Cowboys passed up on Johnny Manziel, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, and an electrifying talent out of Texas A&M. Manziel was the entire package. He was the new thing. His style represented frantically improvised plays where fans looked on in horror as the defense enclosed their player, only to be wowed when he miraculously escaped the pressure and delivered darts to wide-open receivers. 

Traditional quarterbacks stood confidently in the pocket, scanning the field to identify an open target. Johnny did the opposite. He escaped the pocket at the first hint of pressure, using the wide spaces to maneuver, faint, and juke his way out of trouble, buying time for his players to get open.

Manziel didn’t just capture the attention of fans. The media was largely sold on his talent as well. Media pundit, Skip Bayless, famously said “One day, I’m predicting, Johnny Manziel will become even bigger in the City of Cleveland than his buddy and business partner LeBron James ever was in the City of Cleveland.” 

Since the Cowboys selected Martin over Manziel, the former has gone on to eight pro bowls and eight all-team selections. Manziel on the other hand, flamed out in a blaze of drama. His style didn’t translate to the professionals where defenses were faster, stronger, and smarter. The value of his legs as a weapon greatly diminished when the defensive linemen weighing 275 lbs could run just as fast as him.

So why were fans so upset when Martin was drafted over Manziel? Because drafting an offensive lineman feels like checking the box, it never feels like hitting a home run. Offensive linemen don’t have stats. It’s hard to measure their play with numbers. So drafting one rarely feels great. It feels like you're leaving talent on the table.

The receiver, running back, and quarterback positions on the other hand are mired with stats. There are total yards, yards after catch, yards after contact, touchdowns, QBR, and a plethora of others. Success at these positions is clear to see and easy to measure so it draws the attention of fans. Rarely will you see a fan sporting an offensive line jersey or watching offensive line play in a highlight reel but every other position is fair game. Of the top 50 best-selling jerseys of the 2020-2021 season, not a single one was an offensive lineman’s.

Cash is the offensive lineman of any investment portfolio. Opting for a large cash position is like drafting an offensive lineman, it’s uncomfortable because it feels like you’re leaving returns and talent on the table. However, it is entirely necessary as cash is the first line of defense in ensuring your portfolio continues to compound uninterrupted.

Like the offensive line position, the value of cash is only clear when catastrophe strikes. When your investment portfolio halves in value and you lose your job, the value of a cash position is so stingingly obvious. But when times are good, your investment portfolio is booming, and you just got a promotion, holding a large cash position doesn’t feel great. You want to deploy your earnings and hit a home run! You want to draft Johnny Manziel instead of Zach Martin.

Back to my story about the Bengals. The Bengals lost to the Rams in Super Bowl 56, 23 - 20. By most assessments, the Bengals had the more talented offense, but the offense didn’t realize its full potential because poor offensive line play couldn’t afford them the time necessary to execute their responsibilities without duress.

Joe Burrow spent most of the game running for his life, attempting to avoid the oncoming pass rush. Joe Mixon had a below-average performance, falling short of the 100-yard mark he so often achieved. Chase and Higgins had decent games statistically, but nowhere near the game-changing performances needed to bring the Lombardi Trophy home to Cincinnati. And all of this went back to offensive line play. 

Without time afforded by the offensive line, the quarterback couldn’t make his reads, the running backs couldn’t run the ball, and the receivers couldn’t run their routes. Even the immense talent possessed by the skill players on the Bengals could not overcome the lack of time they had to do their job.

Poor offensive line play can negate any talent your skill players may have just like a forced sale of your stocks due to liquidity needs can negate any skill you have at stock selection. A necessary component of success in investing and football is time but this value is both hard to see and appreciate until you need it.